Shipping data suggests a decline in imports and exports
Key takeaways
The policy debate around the trade deficit and tariffs appears to be shifting.
Significantly higher tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities, originally scheduled to take effect Jan. 1, are now on hold, which will bolster the bottom lines of both importers and consumers.
U.S. national accounts data, which includes gross domestic product, shows that imports of goods in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms dropped in the second quarter of 2025 and flattened during the third quarter.
At the same time, exports of goods remained consistent, with net exports flattening in the second and third quarters.
For a more up-to-date analysis not affected by the government shutdown, we looked at privately supplied shipping data, which shows not only a drop in imports, but also a drop in U.S. exports.
Imports on the West Coast have moderated …
Import containers from Asia processed at seaports along the U.S. West Coast spiked in the second half of 2024 and again in 2025 as importers prepared for end-of-year consumer purchases.
But on a year-over-year basis, the growth rate moderated before turning negative in the last months of 2025.
This decline will bring collateral damage, with a drop in West Coast imports having a negative impact on employment in U.S. transportation and material-moving occupations.
Small businesses dependent on intermediate and final goods are also at risk.
… just as they have on the East Coast
Although more consistent, import containers processed at Atlantic and Gulf coast seaports have been trending lower as well, with their growth rate steadily declining.
Exports on the West Coast have deteriorated …
Export activity along the West Coast has been moderating since 2024, with a negative growth rate in all but two of the 11 months reported in 2025.
… while growth has moderated on the East Coast
Export activity along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts has been moderating since 2024 as well, with growth slowing in 2025. A spike in November was aided by the sharp drop in port activity during the 2024 hurricane season.
Looking ahead, we would expect Gulf Coast exports to be sustained by exports of natural gas and petroleum products.
The takeaway
The experiment with tariffs is far from over. Still, the shift in U.S. trade policy is likely to have an adverse impact on U.S. imports of goods and on trading partners’ appetite for U.S. exports.